Copper Market Volatility: Record Prices Amid Tariff Concerns and Supply Shortages
Copper markets are experiencing extreme volatility, with prices nearing historic highs. This is due to a potent mix of supply disruptions and uncertainty surrounding impending U.S. import tariffs. As of mid-October 2026, LME copper trades around $14,362 per metric tonne, marking a roughly 30% year-on-year increase. This comes after a record high of $15,057 per tonne ($6.83/lb) on COMEX in late September.
The dramatic increase is largely attributed to aggressive U.S. stockpiling in anticipation of a proposed 15% tariff on refined copper imports slated for January 2027. This tariff is expected to rise to 30% in 2028, pending a final announcement from the White House. This stockpiling frenzy has escalated COMEX warehouse inventories by nearly 750% since February 2025. Currently, approximately 70% of all visible global copper stocks are held in U.S. facilities.
Conversely, markets outside the United States are significantly tighter. Mining disruptions, such as a potential strike at BHP Group’s Escondida mine in Chile — the world’s largest copper mine — have further strained global supply. CRU Group, which had previously predicted a 639,000-tonne global surplus for 2026, now views the market as “at best balanced.”
Demand fundamentals remain strong, with structural tailwinds from AI data center buildouts, green energy infrastructure, and global electrification maintaining a solid base for prices. Analysts at Bank of China International predict “new record highs in copper prices in the coming weeks or months.”
Source: WhalesBook – Copper Prices Hit Record $14,630 Amid Supply Squeeze and Tariff Fears