Potential Lunar Impact: Building-Sized Asteroid 2024 YR4
Researchers are keeping a close eye on asteroid 2024 YR4, a building-sized space rock with a diameter of approximately 60 meters. This asteroid has a 4 percent chance of colliding with the Moon on December 22, 2032. Initially discovered in late December 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System telescope in Chile, the asteroid was once considered a potential threat to Earth. However, further observations have since ruled out any terrestrial impact.
Using data from the James Webb Space Telescope and ground-based observatories, NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies has been able to refine the asteroid’s trajectory. These observations have improved scientists’ understanding of the asteroid’s position by nearly 20 percent. This has increased the probability of a lunar impact from 3.8% to 4.3%. If the collision does occur, it could create a crater roughly one kilometer wide on the Moon’s southern near side. This event could also eject debris that poses risks to satellites and future lunar infrastructure.
The asteroid will remain too distant to observe until it returns to view in 2028. At that time, astronomers will have another opportunity to refine their predictions. While the Moon itself would not be significantly affected by such an impact, the event would provide a rare opportunity to observe an asteroid collision of this magnitude in real time with modern instruments.
Source: Science News