US 10-Year Treasury Yield Exceeds 5%: A First Since 2023
In a clear indication of escalating economic apprehension, the US 10-year Treasury yield momentarily crossed the psychologically significant 5% mark on Monday, September 15, 2026. This is the highest intraday level since October 2023 and the highest closing level since 2007. The benchmark yield peaked at 5.014% before pulling back to around 4.94% as buyers stepped in.
The spike was propelled by a combination of factors:
- Soaring oil prices above $108 per barrel
- Persistent inflation worries heightened by tariffs and fuel costs
- Rising government and corporate borrowing needs, especially from AI companies issuing substantial debt to finance infrastructure expansions
The bond selloff also occurred ahead of a crucial Federal Reserve policy meeting slated for September 15–16.
Markets are currently factoring in a 92.3% likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike of 25 basis points this week, as per the CME Group FedWatch tool. This would mark the Fed’s first rate increase since 2023. The 30-year Treasury bond yield was at 5.353%, while the 2-year yield rose to 4.658%.
“The cleaner decision, based on the data and current market expectations, would be to hike,” stated Jay Woods, Chief Market Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. He added that a failure to hike could be interpreted as the Fed falling “behind the curve.”
Source: Bloomberg — US 10-Year Yield Tops 5% | CNBC — 10-year Treasury yield hits 5%