Weekly Gain in Oil Prices Amid Hormuz Tensions
Global crude oil prices marked a weekly gain of approximately 3.5–4% for the week ending July 10, 2026. Despite a slight dip on Friday, prices settled around $71 per barrel. The increase was primarily due to the renewed US-Iran tensions disrupting tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This critical chokepoint accounts for nearly 20% of the world’s oil and gas trade, thereby embedding a significant risk premium in prices.
Markets remained on edge following fresh attacks that strained an already fragile ceasefire. However, diplomatic channels remain open. A Qatari delegation is in Tehran as part of ongoing negotiations. President Trump confirmed that both sides agreed to continue talks, but warned that the ceasefire was effectively over. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that a prolonged escalation could jeopardize plans to rebuild global oil inventories later this year. These inventories have already plummeted by an estimated 1.4 billion barrels since conflict disrupted Gulf shipping earlier in 2026.
On the other hand, OPEC+ — comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — agreed to increase production targets by 188,000 barrels per day from August. This marks the fifth consecutive month of output hikes. However, JPMorgan analysts caution that the market faces “the risk of a temporary glut” as previously stranded tankers re-enter a system that has adapted to function without them. Looking further ahead, Capital Economics projects oil could fall to $60 per barrel in 2027 and potentially $50 by 2028 if OPEC production surges while demand remains subdued.
Source: Trading Economics — Crude Oil Price News, July 10, 2026