Historic Departure: UAE Ends OPEC Membership Amid Iran Conflict
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) officially ended its nearly six-decade-long membership with OPEC on May 1, 2026. This historic departure removes the cartel’s third-largest oil producer, marking one of the most significant exits in OPEC’s history since its inception in 1960.
“This decision follows a comprehensive review of the UAE’s production policy and its current and future capacity and is based on our national interest,” stated the UAE Energy Ministry. Prior to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, which disrupted Gulf shipping routes, the country was producing approximately 3.4 million barrels per day.
UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei, in an interview with CNBC, explained that the timing of the exit was chosen to minimize market disruption. “Our exit at this time is the right time for it, because it will have a minimum impact on the price and it will have a minimum impact on our friends at OPEC and OPEC+,” he said. The UAE has ambitious plans to expand its production capacity from about 3.4 million barrels per day to 5 million barrels per day by 2027, backed by a whopping $145 billion in upstream investment.
The departure comes amidst escalating political tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The issues range from production quotas and regional politics to competing economic visions. OPEC+ quotas had constrained UAE output well below its capacity, limiting the country to roughly 3 million barrels per day despite having a capacity exceeding 4 million barrels per day. Analysts caution that the exit could undermine OPEC’s ability to control oil prices and potentially trigger an oversupply if the UAE-Saudi competition escalates.
Source: CNBC